What Do Singapore's Record-Low 2025 Births Mean for PR Applicants?

TLDR

• Singapore recorded 29,864 live births in 2025 — the first year ever below 30,000, and the lowest in post-independence history.
• Natural increase (births minus deaths) fell 53.7% to 3,365, the lowest in Singapore’s post-independence record (the continuous ICA series reaches back to at least 1971; the previous low was 6,653 in 2023).
• About 98% of that fall came from fewer births, not from more deaths. Deaths rose by just 57 (+0.2%).
• Chinese residents were the only group in natural decrease: −3,071 (16,902 births vs 19,973 deaths). Malay +3,006, Indian +1,199, Others +2,231 — all still positive, all shrinking.
• Natural increase added 3,365 residents in 2025. Singapore granted 35,264 Permanent Resident (PR) statuses in 2024 — roughly 10 times more.
• Announced intake signals point higher (about 40,000 PRs a year). That is a planning signal, not an easier bar and not a rule in force.
• The citizen ethnic mix has barely moved in a decade — Chinese 76.2% in 2015 to 75.5% in 2025 — while Chinese natural increase turned sharply negative. Immigration is what holds that ratio steady.

What happened to Singapore’s births and deaths in 2025?

Singapore registered 29,864 live births in 2025, down from 33,703 in 2024.

That was a fall of:

• 3,839 births
• 11.4% in one year
• The lowest annual number in Singapore’s post-independence history
• The first year ever with fewer than 30,000 births

Deaths barely moved. They rose from 26,442 to 26,499 — an increase of 57 deaths, or 0.2%.

Measure	2024	2025	Change
Live births	33,703	29,864	−3,839 (−11.4%)
Deaths	26,442	26,499	+57 (+0.2%)
Natural increase	7,261	3,365	−3,896 (−53.7%)
Crude birth rate per 1,000 residents	7.4	6.5	−0.9
Crude death rate per 1,000 residents	6.0	6.0	No change
Crude natural increase per 1,000 residents	1.3	0.5	−0.8
Median age, first-time mothers	31.9	32.1	+0.2

Source: ICA, Report on Registration of Births and Deaths 2025.

Two terms, in plain English:

• Natural increase is simply births minus deaths. It ignores immigration and emigration.
• A crude rate is the count per 1,000 residents. “Crude” only means it is not adjusted for the population’s age profile.

Singapore’s 2025 natural increase of 3,365 is the lowest in the post-independence record — the continuous ICA/SingStat series reaches back to at least 1971, and no earlier year in it is lower. For scale: it was 22,323 as recently as 2015, and first fell below 10,000 in 2022 (8,714).

To put 3,365 against the size of the country: at mid-2025 Singapore’s total population was 6.111 million, made up of 4.205 million residents (3.661 million citizens and 543,832 PRs) and 1.907 million non-residents.

Was the 2025 decline driven by fewer births or more deaths?

Fewer births, overwhelmingly.

Natural increase fell by 3,896. Of that, 3,839 came from fewer births and only 57 from additional deaths. That is about 98% birth-driven.

Are deaths accelerating in Singapore?

No. Deaths have plateaued since the COVID-era peak in 2022.

Year	Deaths	Year-on-year
2022	26,891	+10.7%
2023	26,888	−0.01%
2024	26,442	−1.7%
2025	26,499	+0.2%

(2023 figure per ICA, Report on Registration of Births and Deaths 2025, Table 1.)

Deaths have stayed inside a narrow band of roughly 26,400 to 26,900 for four straight years. The crude death rate held at 6.0 per 1,000 residents in both 2024 and 2025, because population growth absorbed the small rise in the absolute number.

The age profile shows an ageing population, not a mortality shock:

• 87.4% of deaths (23,158) were people aged 60 or older.
• Median age at death: 78.2, up from 76.1 in 2016.
• Median age at death was 82.5 for women and 75.7 for men. The male-to-female death ratio was 1,194 to 1,000.
• Cancer, heart and hypertensive diseases, and lung or respiratory diseases together made up a provisional 52.1% of deaths.

Median age at death also differs by ethnic group: Chinese 80.1, Malay 72.5, Indian 72.3, Others 68.8. This matters for the next section. The Chinese shortfall is not about higher mortality risk — it reflects an older age structure combined with a steep fall in births.

Separately, about 1 in 5 citizens is now aged 65 or older, up from about 1 in 8 a decade ago. The old-age support ratio — the number of residents aged 20 to 64 for each resident aged 65 and over — fell from 5.7 in 2015 to 3.3 in 2025, and is projected to reach 2.7 by 2030. For citizens alone the ratio is tighter still: 2.9 in 2025, projected to 2.4 by 2030.

Which ethnic group had more deaths than births in 2025?

The national total hides a sharp split. Singapore classifies residents under CMIO — Chinese, Malay, Indian and Others. “Others” means residents who are not Chinese, Malay or Indian.

Chinese residents recorded 16,902 births and 19,973 deaths — a natural decrease of 3,071. Chinese residents were the only group with more deaths than births.

Natural increase by ethnic group

Ethnic group	2022	2023	2024	2025
Chinese	−311	−920	+99	−3,071
Malay	+4,130	+3,313	+3,071	+3,006
Indian	+1,966	+1,620	+1,517	+1,199
Others	+2,929	+2,640	+2,574	+2,231

Chinese residents first slipped into natural decrease in 2022 (−311). The deficit widened in 2023 (−920), flipped briefly positive during the Dragon Year of 2024 (+99), then dropped to −3,071 in 2025.

The other three groups stayed positive — but all are well below their own peaks: Malay peaked at +4,776 in 2020, Indian at +3,350 in 2015, and Others at +4,871 in 2012.

The fertility rates behind the split

The TFR (total fertility rate) is the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at current rates. The Department of Statistics publishes it by ethnic group, and the gap is the structural reason behind the birth figures above.

Ethnic group	TFR 2014	TFR 2019	TFR 2023	TFR 2024
Overall	1.25	1.14	0.97	0.97
Chinese	1.13	0.99	0.81	0.83
Malays	1.73	1.80	1.65	1.58
Indians	1.13	0.98	0.95	0.91

Source: NPTD, Population in Brief 2025, Table 16 (Department of Statistics data). DOS publishes TFR for the three main groups; no separate figure is published for the Others group. Overall TFR fell further to 0.87 in 2025 (DPM Gan, 26 February 2026); the 2025 breakdown by ethnic group had not been published at the time of writing.

Chinese TFR has been below 1.0 since around 2019 and sat at 0.83 in 2024, roughly half the Malay rate of 1.58. That gap, compounded over years, is what produces a Chinese natural decrease while every other group stays positive.

Chinese births fell far faster than any other group

Ethnic group	2024 births	2025 births	Change
Chinese	19,926	16,902	−15.2%
Malay	6,896	6,725	−2.5%
Indian	3,728	3,427	−8.1%
Others	3,153	2,810	−10.9%

Chinese births fell by 3,024 — about four-fifths of the national decline of 3,839.

Deaths, by contrast, hardly moved in any group:

Ethnic group	2024 deaths	2025 deaths	Change
Chinese	19,827	19,973	+0.7%
Malay	3,825	3,719	−2.8%
Indian	2,211	2,228	+0.8%
Others	579	579	0.0%

Birth rates fell in every group over the past decade

Ethnic group	Crude birth rate 2015	Crude birth rate 2025
Chinese	8.6	5.3
Malay	13.3	11.8
Indian	10.9	7.3
Others	17.9	9.1

Crude death rates in 2025 were Chinese 6.3, Malay 6.3, Indian 5.0 and Others 2.3 per 1,000 residents.

Note what that produces: the Chinese and Malay death rates are now identical at 6.3, but the Chinese birth rate (5.3) is less than half the Malay rate (11.8). Chinese residents are the only group where the birth rate is below the death rate.

Ethnic group	Crude rate of natural increase 2025, per 1,000
Chinese	−0.9
Malay	+5.5
Indian	+2.2
Others	+6.8
Overall	+0.5

What does the birth decline mean for Singapore immigration?

It strengthens the demographic case for continued immigration — which is exactly how the government frames it.

Natural increase added 3,365 residents in 2025. Singapore granted 35,264 new PR statuses in 2024, alongside 22,766 new citizenships. A PR (Permanent Resident) is a foreign national granted the right to live in Singapore long term.

So immigration is currently adding roughly 10 times more people than the natural gap between births and deaths. One clarification, so the comparison is not overread: natural increase covers the resident population (citizens and PRs) only, and most new citizens are existing PRs converting, so PR and citizenship grants should not simply be added together.

Who received PR and citizenship in 2024?

The National Population and Talent Division publishes a profile of each year’s grants. The 2024 breakdown:

	New PRs (35,264)	New citizens (22,766)
Aged 20 and below	24.8%	29.9%
Aged 21–30	32.6%	14.3%
Aged 31–40	31.4%	28.5%
Aged above 40	11.3%	27.4%
From Southeast Asian countries	63.9%	64.3%
From other Asian countries	29.6%	32.8%
From all other countries	6.5%	2.9%
Post-secondary qualification (aged 20+)	85.5%	81.1%
Secondary and below (aged 20+)	14.5%	18.9%

Source: NPTD, Population in Brief 2025, Table 17 (ICA data).

Read the region rows carefully: this is country of origin, not ethnicity. The “all other countries” row means applicants from outside Asia, and it is not the same thing as the CMIO “Others” category. A Chinese-ethnicity applicant from Malaysia appears under Southeast Asian countries; an Indian-ethnicity applicant from Britain appears under all other countries. ICA does not publish a CMIO breakdown of grants.

Three things are visible in the table. Grants skew young: 88.8% of new PRs were aged 40 or below. They skew educated: 85.5% of new PRs aged 20 and over held a post-secondary qualification. And they skew regional: 93.5% of new PRs came from Asian countries.

The fertility picture behind the numbers

Singapore’s TFR fell to 0.87 in 2025, from 0.97 in both 2023 and 2024, and 1.25 a decade earlier. (Source: DPM Gan, 26 February 2026, for the 2025 figure; Population in Brief 2025 for the earlier years.)

At a sustained TFR of 0.87, 100 residents would be followed by about 44 children and 19 grandchildren. DPM Gan described such a decline, if sustained, as “practically impossible” to reverse, because each smaller generation contains fewer future mothers.

Citizen population growth has already slowed:

• 0.9% a year, 2015–2020
• 0.8% a year, 2020–2025
• 0.7% in the latest year
• Projected towards about 0.5% a year

Without new measures, the citizen population is expected to start shrinking by the early 2040s. Smaller male birth cohorts also feed directly into national service and defence planning — a point DPM Gan raised explicitly.

Are intake targets going up?

Yes — as announced signals, not as rules in force. In his 26 February 2026 Committee of Supply speech, DPM Gan indicated that over the next five years Singapore expects to grant roughly:

• 25,000 to 30,000 new citizenships a year, up from about 25,000
• About 40,000 new PR statuses a year, up from about 35,000

He framed this as expansion “driven by demographic necessity.”

A bigger total does not mean an easier bar. Singapore can raise overall intake while staying highly selective on individual applications. For more on how the speech reads against application practice, see what Minister Gan’s 2026 population speech means for PR and citizenship applicants, and for the wider population trend, Singapore’s population cools in 2025.

Does ethnic composition affect PR and citizenship outcomes?

Two questions get run together here, and they have different answers. Whether Singapore manages the ethnic composition of its population is a settled question. What that means for any individual application is not disclosed.

Composition is managed, and the data shows it

The citizen ethnic mix has barely moved in a decade:

Ethnic group	2015	2020	2024	2025
Chinese	76.2%	75.9%	75.6%	75.5%
Malays	15.0%	15.0%	15.1%	15.1%
Indians	7.4%	7.5%	7.6%	7.6%
Others	1.4%	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%

Source: NPTD, Population in Brief 2025, Table 3 (Department of Statistics data), as at June each year.

The Chinese share moved 0.7 percentage points across ten years. Malays moved 0.1. Indians moved 0.2. That is a remarkably narrow band for a population subject to very different underlying fertility rates — Chinese TFR at 0.83 against Malay TFR at 1.58 — and to a Chinese natural decrease that reached 3,071 in 2025.

Left to natural increase alone, those ratios would have drifted measurably. They did not. Something holds them steady, and that something is immigration.

This is not an inference the government disputes. Minister for Home Affairs K. Shanmugam confirmed publicly at the IPS 35th Anniversary Conference on 12 June 2023 that the Government is committed to keeping racial percentages more or less constant. We set out the full argument, including comparisons with countries that do not manage composition, in Uncovering the Ethnic Quota for PR and Citizenship in Singapore.

What follows for an individual application

The direction of the demographic pressure is worth stating plainly, because it is the opposite of what many applicants assume. Holding the Chinese citizen share near 75.5% while Chinese residents run a natural decrease means that shortfall has to be made up from somewhere. The composition target and the fertility gap together point towards more grants to Chinese-ethnicity applicants over time, not fewer.

That still does not tell any applicant anything useful about their own file, for three reasons.

• No approval rate exists in the published data. ICA publishes the number of grants — 35,264 PRs and 22,766 citizenships in 2024 — but does not publish the number of applications received. Without a denominator there is no approval rate to compute, for any group. Any figure circulating as an “approval rate by race” has been constructed from something other than official statistics.
• Grants are not published by CMIO group at all. The published breakdowns are age, region of origin and qualification. Region of origin is not ethnicity.
• Composition operates at population level, across an entire year’s intake. It is a constraint ICA applies across tens of thousands of decisions, not a score attached to any one application. An applicant cannot see where their group’s balance sits at the moment they apply, cannot influence it, and gains nothing from trying to plan around it.

The practical conclusion has not changed: focus on the parts of the profile that are visible and controllable, and treat composition as background weather rather than something to navigate.

What is E&H Immigration Consultancy seeing in PR cases?

Important framing. This section is an E&H Immigration Consultancy practice observation from a small number of our own 2026 cases. It is not an official statistic, not a published rule, and not a prediction of your outcome. Our caseload is self-selected and is not representative of all applicants.

E&H Immigration Consultancy has seen a number of 2026 cases in which solo applicants with an eligible spouse or children ended up filing as a family rather than alone. In several of these cases, one of the sponsors was a Singaporean — for example a Singaporean spouse or parent.

This is consistent with a long-standing pattern: family applications that include a Singaporean or PR spouse, children, or a Singaporean parent as sponsor present a clearer, more verifiable case for long-term settlement than a single applicant with no family anchor in Singapore.

Our position is that applicants should include the whole family unit by default. Where an applicant has an eligible spouse and children, we lean strongly towards putting everyone on the application rather than filing alone and adding family later.

The reason is that ICA assesses each person in a family application on their own merits, and outcomes within a single application can differ. We have seen applications where some family members were granted residency and others were not. Including a family member has not, in our experience, counted against the others on the same application. Filing alone, by contrast, forgoes the chance for the rest of the family entirely and leaves an obvious question about where they intend to live.

Two situations genuinely justify leaving someone off:

• The person does not want the status. A spouse who intends to remain a citizen of another country, or who has reasons of their own for not seeking Singapore PR or citizenship, should not be included.
• National service liability is a deliberate consideration. A male child granted PR becomes liable for national service. Some families weigh that consequence and decide against including a son, or decide to time the application differently. That is a legitimate decision, and it should be a deliberate one rather than an oversight. Renouncing or losing PR without serving carries its own consequences for future immigration applications.

If the family unit is incomplete, explain why in the cover letter. An application that covers only part of a household raises a question in the assessor’s mind, and it is better to answer it than to leave it open. The explanation should be specific and consistent with the rest of the file — a spouse’s career or care obligations abroad, a child completing schooling elsewhere, a considered decision about national service. Silence on the point is the weaker option.

One caution on all of the above: ICA has not published any rule requiring family applications. A solo applicant is still eligible to apply, and solo applications are still granted. What we describe is our own practice position drawn from our caseload, not a policy announcement, and it is not a prediction of any individual outcome.

What should PR and citizenship applicants take from this?

Five practical points.

1. Apply as a full family unit unless you have a specific reason not to. If you have an eligible spouse and children, put everyone on the application. ICA assesses each person on their own merits and outcomes within one application can differ, so including a family member does not put the others at risk — but filing alone forgoes their chance entirely and leaves an obvious question about where the household intends to live. The two reasons to leave someone off are that they do not want the status, or that national service liability for a son is a considered decision. If your application covers only part of your household, explain why in the cover letter.

2. Age, marriage and children are read as settlement signals. ICA does not publish weightings, but the 2024 grant profile is consistent with the pattern consultants see: 88.8% of new PRs were aged 40 or below, and 85.5% held a post-secondary qualification. A younger applicant, married, with children being raised and schooled in Singapore, reads as someone likely to stay and contribute over decades. Long-term employment history, CPF contributions and property or school arrangements point the same way.

3. Ethnic composition is managed at population level, not by you. Singapore balances its citizen population’s CMIO composition, and the decade of near-flat percentages shows it clearly. You cannot see where the balance sits, cannot influence it, and should not plan around it. Focus on the parts of your profile you control: length and stability of employment, income progression, qualifications, community involvement, family ties and a clean record.

4. A higher intake target is a timing signal, not a lower bar. Roughly 40,000 PR grants a year instead of 35,264 means more places, not softer standards. If your profile is close, the environment over the next few years is a reasonable one in which to apply. If your profile is weak — short employment history, unstable income, no family ties — the extra places will not carry you. Strengthen the file first.

5. A child born in Singapore does not automatically get PR or citizenship. Singaporean citizenship by birth requires at least one Singaporean parent. A child born in Singapore to two foreign parents does not receive citizenship or PR automatically; PR for the child is a separate application, normally made alongside or after the parent’s. Plan documentation for the child early rather than assuming it follows.

Not sure where your profile stands?

E&H Immigration Consultancy offers a free, no-obligation consultation. We will review your profile against current practice, tell you plainly whether we think you are ready to apply, and explain what would strengthen the file if you are not.

Book a free consultation · Check your PR chances with our calculator

Frequently asked questions

How many babies were born in Singapore in 2025? Singapore registered 29,864 live births in 2025, down 11.4% from 33,703 in 2024. It was the first year on record with fewer than 30,000 births and the lowest annual figure in Singapore’s post-independence history.

What was Singapore’s natural increase in 2025? Natural increase — live births minus deaths — was 3,365, down 53.7% from 7,261 in 2024. That is the lowest in Singapore’s post-independence record, and the crude rate of 0.5 per 1,000 residents is a record low. The previous low was 6,653 in 2023.

Which ethnic group in Singapore had more deaths than births in 2025? Chinese residents, with 16,902 births against 19,973 deaths — a natural decrease of 3,071. Chinese residents were the only CMIO group in natural decrease. Malay (+3,006), Indian (+1,199) and Others (+2,231) all remained positive, though all were below their historical peaks.

Was the 2025 fall driven by more deaths? No. Deaths rose by only 57 (+0.2%), from 26,442 to 26,499, and the crude death rate held at 6.0 per 1,000 residents. About 98% of the fall in natural increase came from the drop of 3,839 births.

How many PRs did Singapore grant in 2024? Singapore granted 35,264 new Permanent Resident statuses and 22,766 new citizenships in 2024. Among new PRs, 88.8% were aged 40 or below, 93.5% came from Asian countries, and 85.5% of those aged 20 and over held a post-secondary qualification.

Will Singapore grant more PRs because of the birth decline? Announced planning signals point that way. In his Committee of Supply speech on 26 February 2026, DPM Gan Kim Yong indicated Singapore expects to grant about 40,000 new PR statuses a year over the next five years, and 25,000 to 30,000 new citizenships a year. These are planning signals, not quotas, entitlements or approval criteria, and a larger intake does not mean a lower assessment bar.

Does Singapore manage the ethnic composition of its population? Yes. The citizen ethnic mix has moved less than one percentage point in a decade — Chinese 76.2% in 2015 to 75.5% in 2025 — despite very different fertility rates between groups and a Chinese natural decrease of 3,071 in 2025. Minister for Home Affairs K. Shanmugam confirmed publicly in 2023 that racial percentages are maintained.

Does ICA publish PR approval rates by ethnicity? No. ICA publishes the number of grants but not the number of applications received, so no approval rate can be computed from official data for any group. Grants are broken down by age, region of origin and qualification — not by CMIO group. Region of origin is not the same as ethnicity: a Chinese-ethnicity applicant from Malaysia counts under Southeast Asian countries.

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Date and status note (footnote)

• Statistics as of: the full 2025 calendar year for births and deaths; June 2025 for population figures; calendar year 2024 for PR and citizenship grants.
• Published: the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) released the Report on Registration of Births and Deaths 2025 on 27 July 2026.
• Separate sources: the total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.87 for 2025 and the forward intake figures come from Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong’s Committee of Supply speech on 26 February 2026. Population composition, TFR by ethnic group and the 2024 grant profile come from the National Population and Talent Division’s Population in Brief 2025.
• In force as of publication: nothing in this article is a new rule. The ICA birth and death report announced no immigration policy changes. The intake numbers from February 2026 are announced planning signals over the next five years, not quotas, entitlements or approval criteria.

Related reading

• Uncovering the Ethnic Quota for PR and Citizenship in Singapore — the full analysis of how Singapore holds its citizen ethnic ratios steady, and what that does and does not mean for applicants.
• What Minister Gan’s 2026 population speech means for Singapore PR and citizenship applicants — the intake figures of 40,000 PRs and 25,000 to 30,000 citizenships a year, and how to read them against application practice.
• Singapore’s population cools in 2025 — the mid-2025 population of 6.111 million, the resident and non-resident split, and slowing citizen growth.
• Singapore PR application: 12 common mistakes (and how to avoid them) — eligibility, documents, timelines and how ICA assesses a profile.

Sources

1. Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA), Report on Registration of Births and Deaths 2025, released 27 July 2026 — live births, deaths, natural increase, crude rates, ethnic-group breakdowns, median age at death and first-time mothers, provisional causes of death.
2. National Population and Talent Division, Population in Brief 2025 — citizen ethnic mix (Table 3), old-age support ratio (Table 5), resident TFR by ethnic group (Table 16), profile of citizenships and permanent residencies granted in 2024 (Table 17). Underlying data from the Department of Statistics and ICA.
3. Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Committee of Supply speech, 26 February 2026 — total fertility rate of 0.87 for 2025, citizen population growth rates and projections, and the announced citizenship and PR intake signals.
4. Minister for Home Affairs K. Shanmugam, IPS 35th Anniversary Conference, 12 June 2023 — public confirmation that racial percentages in the population are maintained.
5. E&H Immigration Consultancy practice observations, 2026 caseload — clearly marked in-text as internal, non-statistical observations from a small self-selected sample.

Disclaimer

This article is general information, not legal or immigration advice, and does not create a client relationship. Statistics are as reported by the sources listed above and were accurate as at the publication date; figures marked as derived or approximate are noted in-text. Nothing in this article is a new rule or a change in policy. The ICA birth and death report announced no immigration policy changes, and the intake figures announced in February 2026 are planning signals over a five-year horizon, not quotas, entitlements or approval criteria. Sections labelled as E&H Immigration Consultancy practice observations are internal, non-statistical impressions from a small, self-selected caseload; they are not official statistics and are not predictions of any individual outcome. ICA assesses every PR and citizenship application on its own merits and does not publish approval rates or assessment weightings.